What the Future Holds

There are people in this world who make it their business to predict the future. And it's obviously a good business, for it's only human nature to want a glimpse of what lies ahead.

Ever heard of Faith Popcorn? Her book, Faith Popcorn on the Future of Your Company, Your World, Your Life, is a national best-seller and is updated and republished every year. Industry leaders depend on it and closely watch the trends she predicts.

I purchased a similar report in 1975 for a couple of thousand dollars from a New York company that specialized in the analysis of future growth of North American industries. This report identified 15 growth industries till the year 2000. To my surprise, it did not list what I thought would have been the most obvious developing sectors--automobiles, construction, photographic films and cameras. Instead, the aerospace industry, satellite technology, the field of computers and semi-conductors, telecommunications and other futuristic industries topped the list.

But right smack in the middle, at seventh place, was "Health Foods, Herbs and Nutritional Supplements," followed by the pharmaceuticals category and the food-processing sector. Was I ever excited! I had chosen the natural foods industry as my livelihood and passion.

During the past 25 years, these growth predictions have been fulfilled and the natural products industry is still growing--worldwide and at a rapid pace. Public interest is shooting through the roof, fuelled by magazines, books and educational tools catering to health-conscious consumers. Here at alive, we're proud to be at the forefront with an expanding publishing program and the introduction of the Natural Health Guide series. Likewise, our award-winning alive Encyclopedia of Natural Healing is the first of its kind in the English-speaking world and has set the standard for natural health knowledge for years to come.

Who are the trendsetters? And how is it possible to predict the future and industry trends? I say the only way to predict this is to analyze the past and look for influencing developments that run in parallel industries. The principle is to watch for cause and effect.

Look at what has influenced the growth so far in the health food industry. The main reason (cause) given for the growth is the rapid industrialization of food production and the industry shift to the commodity sector. The Krafts, Nestles, Frito Lays, Heinzs, Campbell Soups, Knorrs and many others are all publicly owned and traded on the stock exchange--even Celestial Seasonings and Hains, which started out as health food suppliers. There is no longer a Mr. Graham or the Kellogg brothers whose passion was to produce healthy, nourishing food. The main focus of the food giants is to please shareholders by ensuring that stock values are constantly rising. The key words are mergers, streamlining by cutting variety of product, and manipulating quality and shelf life to save cost. Flavour and aroma are skillfully designed to hook the consumer to very specific products. Huge sums of money are pumped into advertising to change consumer perceptions and product acceptance.

In Europe it is estimated that about 70 per cent of food purchases are packaged, while in the USA, it is assumed to be more than 90 per cent. The consequences are all too well known, as demonstrated by the rising incidences of degenerative disease, which run parallel with the industrialization of food.

The birth of the health food movement began at the same time that Louis Pasteur started to pasteurize everything out of fear of bacterial contamination. Watchdogs in the nutrition field raised their warning finger, already pointing out that the live elements in food must not be killed by pasteurization or by heat processing. (Dead food weakens the immune system, opening the floodgates for all kinds of ailments.)

God forbid that current trends continue, because then the next generation will no longer remember how meals were prepared from scratch using garden-fresh produce. Fortunately enough, the number of people withstanding the flood of manufactured food products is growing. Natural food sales are rising and the organic food movement is literally gaining ground. Long-lasting benefits will be a healthier nation.